Saturday, November 28, 2009

National Debt Clock

"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. – As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery."

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

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U.S. National Debt Clock

"Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked, 'Account overdrawn.'" - Ayn Rand - Atlas Shrugged

What will happen when, in a moment in time, the whole world comes to understand that money ............. isn't?

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value." - Alan Greenspan - 1966

Some suggest our debt isn't serious because of it's relationship to what is alleged to be GDP, but the (formerly) ballooning GDP is more of an indication of the increase in phony money being blown into the system (inflation), than having any relationship to wealth being produced. Particularly in light of our nation's economic conversion from the manufacture of real goods - and real wealth creation - to one of "service". Particularly "financial service" or what is more properly called usury, or parasitism of the wealth that others create. On average M3 has grown at eight times the rate of industrial production over the last 50 years. Additionally, our GDP is far more than offset by just our gross nationalpersonal/private debt.

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CHART

According to the Treasury Department, from June 30 2008 to June 30 2009 our nation's debt increased by 2.053 trillion dollars. In just the first 3 quarters of fiscal 2009 (October 1, 2008 to June 30 2009), our national debt increased by 1.421 trillion dollars.

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

(Click on graph to enlarge)

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship." - Alexander Tyler 1787 -

DEBT INTEREST TIME BOMB

(anchor) Interest expense on the United States debt is a time bomb - now exploding - comprising a whopping 44% of our 2008 deficit (70% of our 2006 deficit). As of fiscal year end '08 (Sept 30), debt interest set a new record totaling $451 billion dollars for the year. That was before the government added another trillion dollars to our debt in '09, virtually overnight, in a futile effort to keep their Keynesian scheme afloat. Debt interest is sure to top $500 billion in fiscal '09 IF we can still depend on the kindness of others loaning us money at ridiculously low rates of interest.

Do we have to wonder why the Fed is willing to cut interest rates, regardless of further rendering the U.S. dollar to the status of a banana republic currency?

Dollar Index (7-09) - click on chart for update
(Click on graph to enlarge)

Let alone the Fed's feeble effort to head off a banking, and more importantly a money, collapse resulting from the unwinding of the greatest real estate mania in world history. The spike in interest rates in the chart below is what happened the last time we had democrats in complete control of our government under Jimmy Carter. What will the U.S. owe in annual interest when rates skyrocket to what they were back then?

(update 7-12-09) In spite of a collapse in the cost of borrowing money, as shown by the ever lower T-bill and 5-year noterates in the chart below, our interest expense for fiscal '09 on U.S. debt is already at 320 billion, with a quarter yet to go.

I did a search for "average maturity of U.S. debt", for the first time in a few years, and found this Encarta article: "Maturity of U.S. debt ranges from less than a year to over 20 years, with the average maturity about 3 years. More than half of the debt, however, is short term, maturing in less than a year."

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what will happen to our national interest expense, with just a little uptick in interest rates, from the absurdly low cost of borrowing the Treasury has enjoyed for many years now. In spite of lower and lower rates, each year we still pay more total interest than the year before, because our debt keeps climbing as shown in the chart at the top. The democrat government adding trillions of new debt within weeks and months of taking office.
What if short-term interest rates move to just 1Now what if they return to the Jimmy Carter highs of 15% in 1980, which would reasonably reflect the risk of loaning money, to a government that obviously could NEVER pay it back? That would be a multiple of 75 times what our cost of money is today, just on the short-term HALF of our debt.

What foreigner in their right mind, would loan us money at 1/5 of 1% interest, with the currency risk reflected in the Dollar Index chart above? It's obvious that NOBODY would, if they didn't have to. It's central bankers trying to keep brave faces as the entire global money system stands, not teetering, but having lost it's balance, at the edge of the abyss.
T-bill rate chart - table Note we haven't seen T-bill rates this low since the 1940's.
5 year note chart - table

U.S. DEBT INTEREST CHART

In spite of the steadily decreasing cost of borrowing over the last 30 years, with interest rates falling to lows not seen for 65 years, annual interest expense has steadily increased because of crushing increases in our national debt. Over just the first 3 quarters of fiscal 2009 the U.S. has paid over 320 billion in interest. With over half our debt paper having maturity of less than a year, what will happen to our annual interest expense, with just a little uptick in rates? Would seem debt interest promises to be the "smoking gun".
Chart debt interest numbers from treasury: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm
(Click to enlarge)
"Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes it's laws." - Baron Meyer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

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